CHENXING ALUMINUM Forecasts 2026 Aluminum Price Trajectory

May 11, 2026 — CHENXING ALUMINUM, a key player in China’s aluminum trade, projects a structurally tight global aluminum market in 2026, with prices trending higher amid constrained supply and robust green demand growth. The firm forecasts LME aluminum prices to average $3,300–$3,600 per tonne for the year, while Shanghai aluminum prices are seen at RMB 21,000–24,000 per tonne, representing an 8%–12% year-on-year increase.

Supply-side rigidities remain the core driver. China’s primary aluminum output is capped at 45 million tonnes by policy, with minimal new capacity additions in 2026. Overseas, production growth is limited by high power costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where ongoing conflicts have disrupted over 2.2 million tonnes of capacity, with recovery expected to take at least six months.

On the demand front, new energy sectors—including photovoltaics, energy storage, and lightweight automotive applications—will be the main growth engines, offsetting weakness in the construction sector. Global aluminum demand is expected to rise by 2%–4% year-on-year, outpacing supply growth of 1%–3% and resulting in a 500,000–700,000 tonne deficit for the year.

CHENXING ALUMINUM notes that prices will see strong first-half momentum, peaking in Q2, followed by high-level consolidation in the second half as new supply gradually ramps up. Risks include faster-than-expected overseas capacity releases and global economic slowdown, which could trigger temporary price